Nearly 300 years before the decline of Rome, Theophilos of Antioch reportedly calculated the exact date of its fall, 476 AD. Was this merely a lucky guess? No one knows for sure, but we do know that Theophilos attempted to use his knowledge of the Torah and letters from the physician Luke to achieve this calculation. In that spirit, then, this blog attempts to point to reality in the midst of idealism. Theophilos predicted Rome's fall in its halcyon days. He was willing to be unpopular for the sake of truth.



Thursday, February 3, 2011

Egypt: The Unhappy Reality that Awaits


Revolution.

That word fires up the mind and hearts of every American. When we hear revolution, we recall general ideals of liberty and independence. We think of Paul Revere and George Washington, of Redcoats and Minutemen.


In fact, the American revolution gave hope to millions. A string of European revolts would dominate the next half century, especially during the pivotal year of 1848. Later uprisings in Latin America under Simon BolĂ­var would look to the American revolution as a model, and the American republic as their ideal.

Today, we're watching Egypt crusade for liberty, confident of its ability to emulate the American Revolution.

But, what was it about the American revolution that was so inspiring? Revolution itself has occurred from the beginning of civilization...

  1. Military Success--The American colonies defeated the top military and economic superpower of their day. Farmers in militias had defeated a Goliath. Other nations, then, had hope that they too could overpower their rulers: No oppressor was too strong to take down.
  2. Governmental Success--Successful defeats of great nations have occurred throughout history. For example, the Greeks famously crippled the Persians at the Battle of Thermopylae. Yet infighting spread between the Athenians and Spartans, eventually weakening the Greek city-states enough for Phillip of Macedonia to overwhelm the mainland. Thirteen American colonies could have followed this same path. Instead, their founding values, wise leaders, and common heritage allowed them to draft the Constitution. The completed work is obvious to all: America has long been the symbol, and now the leader of freedom.

The problem for other revolutionaries

Unfortunately, many freedom fighters took the revolution part without retaining the governingpart of America's success. They falsely assumed that their current oppressor was their biggest threat. In response to such views, outgoing President Andrew Jackson admonished the American people that "eternal vigilance by the people is the price of liberty, and that you must pay the price if you wish to secure the blessing. It behooves you, therefore, to be watchful in your States as well as in the Federal Government." Too many revolutionaries gloried in their victory without looking to the permanent securing of their ideals. They would not pay the price of difficult compromises to achieve a steady government. They refused to be alert to demagogues who cloaked tyranny in people-pleasing.

Egypt is heading down this same road. Why? Its people have been oppressed for years, but are now content to merely have the choice of what the want. Their goal is to vote, not directly for true freedom. Media interviews with opposition leaders and protesters have shown a disturbing trend. Potential voters worry less about who their new ruler(s) will be, then that they will finally have a choice. Anything, it seems, will surpass the quality of their current "President." These seemingly unexpected protests are starting to make revolution the end, and not the means to a government vigilant in the defense of freedom to be the end, not the means. Protesters may overthrow Mubarak but gain a worse oppressor.



Egypt follows path of French, not American Revolution

Egypt parallels the French Revolution far more than it parallels the American. The French thought they could replicate the Americans, but they failed miserably. Why? Because they lacked the prerequisites to replace what they had destroyed. Egypt is on this same route.

Their "Roots"

America: The American colonies were mostly settled by Englishmen, with minorities from other impoverished European groups. The Anglo colonists brought with them the long tradition of English law and rights. Fundamentally, the Revolution can be traced down these roots to theMagna Carta. In this document, England established the basics of due process (every man must be fairly judged by his peers, before his life, privileges or property may be taken), and that every man is accountable to the law (even the king). Nearly 400 years later, the Parliament of early 1700s Britain exemplified the basics of representation: Authority was in the hands of the people. When Englishmen then settled in America, they brought with them these vital beliefs of natural rights, just laws, and representation. Early settlers created the pivotal Mayflower Compact, which bound treasure hunters, refugees, and other colonists to government. Here was the idea offreedom. Men gave up some liberties for the greater good of each other, and ultimately themselves, by gaining a secure government.

France: France had no great history of personal rights or representative government. Hierarchy dominated every area of French society for hundreds of years. Tribal authorities transformed into a system of feudalism. Kings, lodged in their voluptuous Versailles palaces, ruled the nation. While the English continually moved towards more individual rights, France slid towards autocracy. Further, the Catholic Church had an enormous hold on the French people. Not only was there such a socioeconomic divide between peasantry and nobility, but there was also a gap between the clergy and lay peoples. The priests held the First Estate in French culture. Comparatively, the English's Protestant roots and independent Anglican Church produced values of individuality, not oppression. Of course, the French had the Enlightenment, which had formed some of the very ideas that the American Revolution drew from. Still, for the most part, the French were pulling from new and unfamiliar ideas, rather than the rich English history of the Americans.

Egypt: Thousands of years ago, of course, the Egyptians were a nation of Pharoah's and monarchical succession. More recently--in the 600s, Islamic armies swept through the Middle East and North Africa to establish Muslim rule Egypt. Islam and the Egyptian government have been largely tied together throughout its history. A caliphate government first ruled. Religious leaders succeeded each other, retaining both constancy and autocracy. The hierarchy of sultans and caliphates gradually changed to military castes in later years. For the past two hundred years, Egypt has been under various religious/military rulers. Even when the British ruled, the Egyptian army resisted mightily. And the last three rulers of Egypt--Nassar, Sadat, and Mubarak--were all autocrats to one degree or another. What does this mean? There is no tradition of personal rights, no religion to promote such freedom, nor any trend of representative government. The average person has, historically, never had a significant voice. Therefore, there is an increased chance that once Mubarak's dictatorship is lifted, licence and not freedom will reign. What's the difference? Socrates aptly expands in the Republic: "And isn't the city full of freedom and freedom of speech? And isn't there license to do whatever one wants?...And where there is license, each person would arrange his own life in whatever way pleases him..." and later "in the end...they take no notice of the laws--written or unwritten--in order to have no master at all." Later, Socrates emphasizes that such licentiousness opens the door to a tyrant. He can please the many desires of the people, and then through corruption and increasing evils play upon the people to create his tyranny. (Republic, Book IX) Egypt could very well face the same in the days following a successful revolution. Why? They seem content to stop at revolution. They have never even tasted representation, so there's less a chance that they will push on. Just like the French, they are partially doomed by their own history.

Their Revolution

America: As the British pushed ever more restrictive laws on the colonies, the colonists began to turn further and further against their mother nation. Resistance occurred state by state as representatives protested these new laws. Eventually, the struggle turned militaristic and the Americans defeated their forebears. Government still was representative through the relatively ineffective Articles of Confederation. Yet, during the war, the Continental Congress--though weak--made enough decent decisions to keep America afloat throughout the struggle.

France: Unlike the American colonies, who rebelled in a time of general prosperity; the French uprose in a period of economic and agricultural misery. Poverty and famine ran rampant. Still, their revolution paralleled the concept of representatives taking the first steps towards freedom. The Third Estate, representing the lowest and largest class of society (mainly peasants), pushed for reforms of representation. When the king tried to squelch their power, conflict arose and eventually the revolutionaries achieved a new Constitution. Their constitution was as ineffective as the Articles of Confederation, with bickering from all political and economic persuasions. By the end of this revolutionary period, France was in a similar spot as the American colonies. It had overthrown much of its oppressors, but it still had the king in some power, just as the Americans had British forts dotting their landscape. France was left in division among classes; America was left in division among states.

Egypt: Egypt follows the beginnings of the French revolution. Citizens, oppressed for generations, revolt in a time of economic distress. Unemployment is high, commerce is slow, and the latest Egyptian laws have been greeted in protest. Demonstrations began somewhat quietly, pushing slowly for change. But, as the real purpose of the Egyptian demonstrations--eliminating Mubarak's power--failed, the demonstrations have taken a harsher turn. Today, in fact, Egypt is preparing for a demonstration that could be the bloodiest to date in its struggle: protesters are said to be carrying weapons, and tensions with government street thugs have escalated. What will happen next? We don't know, but the fact that Egypt is bucking such tradition and starting down a road like the French is not comforting.

Their Result

America: This is the crucial difference between the American and French revolutions. While the United States faced internal crisis (various rebellions, weak government) and external threats (British forts, French and Spanish borders), they responded deliberately. The best and wisest men were sent to draft up a new Constitution. At the heart of this Constitution were the ideals of the Revolution, BUT some of the ideals were limited for the sake of unity and practicality.Compromise dominated the Convention, as the interests of 13 distinct colonies had to be balanced in some form. Yet, here is freedom, not license. Freedom is restrainment. George Washington, the Revolutionary hero, was offered the position of king. Yet, he restrained himself and limited his powers. This set a promising trend for the rest of America. The opportunity was autocracy was available to Washington. Yet he did not take it. In fact, the radicals who led the revolution were not the men who crafted a government. Why? Because the new government had to be steady and resolved and restrained, not constantly destroyed and reordered.

France: France let itself go for the ideal of liberty. After further clashes with the king, the French, led by the radical Jacobins, took over power. The Jacobins constantly purged threats to their government. Violence and bloodshed plagued the French as regime after regime was eventually usurped. Eventually, a dictator took over--Napoleon Bonaparte. He was the only one who could unite the nation, and took them militarily to some brief success, even as he continued repression. What was the difference between France and America? Alexander Hamilton put it best when he said that the French Revolution was "sullied by crimes and extravagance..." instead of the deliberation that characterized the American revolution. Liberty overtook good structure and order. When nothing stops freedom, it becomes license where evil can reign untouched.

Egypt: Egypt has set its focus on ridding itself of Mubarak. This glimmer of hope for free elections thrills the protesting populace. Their hope is not for good, solid principles of government, but just for the ability to vote. Hamilton realized that the ancient traditions of the French could not be cast aside in a few months by idealists. Rather, it would have had to be deliberate and slow, with an understanding of their traditions and the necessity of sacrifice. Is Egypt going to pursue liberty as its sole end? As it is, the opportunity for a demagogue to take over is easy. It's probable. Will it be through the Muslim Brotherhood? Maybe another dictator like Mubarak? In any case, the Egyptians have set their focus--not on suffering through the difficulties of raising up freedom, but rather to quickly gain liberty and a vote. Their price will likely be a government that is at least as restrictive as the one they have now.

So...what?

The Egyptians do not have history going in their favor. Revolutions in France, Latin America, and other nations have mostly turned out in failure. The long lines of hierarchy and oppressive rule have prevented the ideals and necessities of freedom from being practiced. The Americans had a working knowledge of representation and government to a degree. Egypt, like most other nations who have unsuccessfully attempted a revolt, does not have this pedigree. Moreover, Egypt is contenting itself with an "election" as its end. It is not necessarily pursuing good government.

Do I support the idea of the Egyptians overthrowing an autocratic government? Of course. They should be entitled to those rights of any other person. But I fear that Egypt is unprepared and ignorant of what is awaiting them. They are unwilling to sacrifice for true freedom--ensuring that the government they create and elect is good. Rather, they are headstrong for liberty. Their revolution will be their poison pill.

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Next time: Does it really matter if the Egyptians elect an Islamic (and possibly oppressive) government? After all, it's their choice. Right?

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Question? Comment? Leave it below in the comments section!

8 comments:

  1. Excellent! Great compare/contrast setup. Love it!

    ReplyDelete
  2. If these statements are all true; you've written a fine argument. If these statements are fuzzy assumptions, which your lack of sources suggests, then I'm not sure you're treating the Egyptian People fairly.

    * They seem content to stop at revolution.
    * [They] are now content to merely have the choice of what the want.
    * Anything, it seems, will surpass the quality of their current "President."
    * They have never even tasted representation
    * Their hope is not for good, solid principles of government, but just for the ability to vote.

    ReplyDelete
  3. @Brandon

    For example, read this . Note the protester emphasizing that " Egyptians have lost hope in any reforms...we do not embrace a certain political party. We are the students, sons, brothers and sisters of the country who are tortured, stolen from and denied their rights in every way, every day. We dream of an Egypt from the era of "El-Sadat," Egypt's previous president." Note that Sadat was a socialist. Not exactly democracy there either.

    Note here what the goal of the protesters is...

    Washington Post


    Note the calls for this "freedom" and then what those demonstrators wish to do...
    Video


    As for Egyptian history, that's pretty much public record. It covers thousands of years...I'd be happy to respond to some example you have of great representation in Egypt, of course.

    ReplyDelete
  4. You've hand picked a few articles/videos, and made inappropriate generalizations that support a pessimistic bias. Even your poll demonstrates this bias: it doesn't contain an option for Egyptians to build a real democracy.

    You don't think we could have found a few crazies in the American Revolution who wanted to use their freedom to, say, kill all the Native Americans? Or increase the use of slavery? You don't think we could find a few crazies now, who, say, picket the funerals of our soldiers or, say, were actively attempting to remove the Texas House Speaker because he was Jewish instead of Christian?

    I also think you are missing a much broader point: We live in a global network. Egyptians are (were) online, they're conducting international business, they visit, vacation, and study abroad. Just saw an interview with Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and he said hundreds of if not thousands of officers in the Egyptian army were actually trained here in the U.S. "They've lived with us, their families have lived with us" he said.

    The Egyptian people have tasted freedom, we, (and the other democracies of world), have shared it with them. Now the Egyptian people want it, and have grown strong enough to ask for it. Do they know how to acquire it? Maybe not. It's not like we made a perfect transition to democracy. The transition will likely be long and difficult, but, feasible: an option your bias seems to deny them.


    Overview:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011_Egyptian_protests

    Defining Groups Involved: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/feb/02/who-is-behind-egyptian-protests

    Discussion of Options: http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/02/can-egypt-really-become-a-democracy/70639/

    What's Happening Now (+ More on the 6th of April Group: Note the Google Exec--Someone had a taste of democracy) http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/world/middleeast/06egypt.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=all

    More on Google Exec
    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/technology/2011/02/wael-ghonim-google-exec-missing-in-egypt-named-spokesman-for-opposition-group.html

    ReplyDelete
  5. Brandon,

    You make absolutely spot on points. I believe, however, you may have misinterpreted what I was saying.

    Of course the Egyptians have tasted freedom. The French tasted democracy--many of the leaders had been to or had some part with the American revolution. In fact, I pointed this out when I said in the beginning that many revolutions have looked to the American as their own. My point was that Egypt, like those other countries, has never had any tradition that would go in that direction. I don't doubt they've tasted it--in fact I agree. What they miss is the real point of democracy--the building of it, the changing of their values...they want the 'liberty' without the rest. And their tradition isn't helping that--think of any country that has revolted against hundreds/thousands of years of tradition to democracy....? Any?

    Also, you said the road to democracy would be long. Of course. Is it feasible? Of course! They would have to be willing to change their values, suffer through the difficulties of democracy, and most importantly have good men lead. What *I* am saying, is that...right now, Egypt is on a crash course for anything BUT democracy. Of course it's possible. They're just not heading that way.

    Now, as for saying that my articles are handpicked, it would make sense that you would have to show significant articles that oppose mine. Yet, what you gave me neither disproves what I mentioned nor does it particularly help your side. That is...the wiki and guardian articles merely stated fact--the demonstrations, and who's behind it. I agree who's behind it. I mentioned some of those names in my article, and the fact that a lot of young, tech--savy kids leading it doesn't matter. That's actually a problem...they are so eager for freedom they might miss it. There's a reason the young Sam Adams and Patrick Henry didn't lead into a new Constitution...they were firebrands that wouldn't help.

    The Google exec has a taste of democracy cause has lived in the US. I agree that the Egyptians have a taste of freedom, as mentioned above. Now, note that Atlantic article. It says "If Egypt can adhere to the September election timetable, the democratic election of a new Egyptian president would be the beginning, not the end, of a democratic transition." Yet you said my poll didn't include an option for democracy. In fact, I agree exactly with your article--democracy would be waiting until September (which is on my poll). Further, your article mentions "Egypt is very far from being "ready" institutionally or civically for democracy"...which also agrees with my article. The Atlantic also went into how many reforms and how difficult the process would be. I do not disagree.

    Shortly stated, my blog agrees with the Atlantic that democracy is "feasible", but I say that the course the Egyptians are heading is anything but democracy. Of course France had a chance at democracy...even Iran did. But they didn't go that way. And that's what's going to happen with Egypt.

    Of course I hope you're right, but I'm afraid that time will prove the truth.

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  6. "Of course I hope you're right, but I'm afraid that time will prove the truth."

    I believe you mean, "time will prove me correct." Equating your view with truth is... blasphemous.

    Before I name countries, which countries do you consider "real" democracies? Do you agree with the images found on the Wiki entry for Democracy, such as this one:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:2009_Freedom_House_world_map.svg

    ReplyDelete
  7. Is equating my view with the truth blasphemous if my view is truly the truth?

    I assume you don't mean 'democracy'--as ancient Athens may have been the only state to come close to that...but possible 'republic' or 'representative government'?

    With a looser view of 'representative government', obviously the wiki map isn't a bad place to start.

    ReplyDelete

What's the result of the Egyptian demonstrations?